ETC/ACM Report 13/2017: Analysis of Drivers of Historic and Future ESD Emission Trends

The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, Decision No 406/2009) establishes national burden sharing targets for EU Member States. It focusses on those categories that are not covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and those that do not relate to Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The objective of this report is to present a trend analysis of historic and future anthropogenic GHG emissions for the most significant sectors covered by the ESD (Decision No 406/2009). This report considers the emissions from sources under the ETS (excluded from the ESD) and sources and sinks from LULUCF in order to put the ESD emissions into context. The report looks at the possible alignment of emission reductions with the implementation of Policies and Measures designed to reduce emissions as well as other potential climatic or economic driving forces, in particular, considering whether this will lead to the success or failure of Member States reaching their national ESD 2020 targets.

Prepared by: Rosie Brook, Justin Goodwin (Aether, UK), Tom Dauwe (VITO, BE), Sabine Gores, Hannah Förster (Öko-Institut, DE), Carmen Schmid, Henrik Neier (UBA, AT), Giorgos Mellios (EMISIA, EL)

Published by: ETC/ACM, March 2018, 81 pp.