ETC/CA Report 1/2024 Guidelines to quantify climate change exposure and vulnerability indicators for the future: an example for heat stress risk across scales

This report provides guidelines for the development of socioeconomic indicators to assess future exposure and vulnerability to future climate hazards and inform science-policy assessments.

31 Dec 2024

Simona Pedde, Stefan Fronzek, Nina Pirttioja, Jelle Van Minnen, Mario Carere, Stefania Marcheggiani, Julie Berckmans, Christiana Photiadou

This report provides guidelines for the development of socioeconomic indicators to assess future exposure and vulnerability to future climate hazards and inform science-policy assessments. Current climate risk assessments primarily rely on static indicators or linear extrapolations, which do not fully capture dynamic socio-economic drivers like urbanization, aging, and income distribution with more qualitative variables relating to vulnerability. This report proposes integrating insights from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to create scenario-based risk assessments that reflect future societal trends, making climate indicators more relevant for policy and planning.