Projecting future vulnerability and exposure to climate-related health risks in Europe: a hybrid approach using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
This report provides guidelines to project non-climatic impact drivers (NCID) - exposure and vulnerability - under alternative socioeconomic futures, combining quantitative data and qualitative narratives through a hybrid scenario approach based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
22 Dec 2025
Simona Pedde, Stefan Fronzek, Nina Pirttioja, Jelle van Minnen, Mario Carere, Stefania Marcheggiani, Julie Berckmans, Christiana Photiadou
Climate change will reshape not only Europe’s environment but also the social conditions that determine health and wellbeing. The physical impacts of heat, floods, droughts, and pollution are increasingly well characterised, yet their consequences depend on the social systems in which they occur. This report provides guidelines to project such non-climatic impact drivers (NCID) - exposure and vulnerability - under alternative socioeconomic futures, combining quantitative data and qualitative narratives through a hybrid scenario approach based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We build from the first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) presentation of NCIDs to more explicitly incorporate the SSP projections, mindfully of already existing data sources and policy agendas. The report builds on the story-and-simulation (SAS) tradition, integrating model-based projections and participatory or expert-based reasoning. It recognises that no single dataset or modelling technique can represent the diversity of European health vulnerabilities; instead, it offers a transparent way to connect different evidence sources. The approach is designed to be replicable, data-agnostic, and scenario-consistent, supporting analysts who wish to expand climate-risk assessments beyond purely climatic drivers. By integrating measurable data with scenario-based reasoning, the hybrid approach offers a replicable foundation for Europe’s next generation of climate-health risk assessments. Its transparent typology supports the comparability of regional analyses while preserving the contextual depth of local evidence. This framework directly contributes to improving coherence between European and national adaptation monitoring systems - including the forthcoming 2027 Governance Regulation reporting cycle - by enabling consistent treatment of non-climatic impact drivers across hazards, sectors, and governance levels. Looking ahead, these methods can inform the design of future EUCRA phases and related EEA work streams, ensuring that scenario-based foresight and risk tracking evolve as an integrated process rather than separate exercises. The hybrid approach thus provides not only a methodological advance but also a practical instrument for aligning scientific foresight with policy implementation under the EU Climate Adaptation Strategy and the European Climate and Health Observatory.
